Saturday, May 16, 2015

A Lovely Saturday!

Determined not to fall down the well of procrastination again, I got started doing my 'musts' and now I have time for my 'wants'. Yay! Good start to the day.I do still have a few musts to do, but most are out of the way.

Laundry is hung outside. The cat is satisfied. I got a review obligation well started (read and commented upon the title, pitches and chapters 1 through 6). Posted. All is right with my world for the moment.

Outside, it's a lovely spring day. Blue sky, clouds, green trees (still), but we didn't get much of the rain we were told to expect. Since I didn't expect it, I wasn't disappointed, but still missed it. Maybe next time.

The drought here is really attracting a lot of attention. It seems there's a group that's petitioning against bottled water plants here in California. Only two problems with that.

First, people are still going to drink water - whether they buy it with the built-in convenience of portability or if they draw it from their tap.

Second, bottled water isn't the only use of water for consumption here in California. What about sodas and beer and wine? All three of those beverages use a lot of water in their processes, a lot of which goes to waste - more than a bottled water company that is dependent upon its sources for its product.

Beyond that, if this group is successful and shuts down the bottled water industry here, what's going to happen in the broader economy?

The plants shut down will shed jobs, lots of them.
The trucking companies that carry water to the bottling companies (not all have their own on-site sources, so they have to truck water in) will have to lay off drivers because there isn't enough other commerce to keep all of those drivers busy.
The distribution companies will have to either shut down (if they are entirely beverage dependent) or will at least have to severely cut back on their staff.
Unemployment will go up.
Tax revenue and CRV fee collection will go down.

Sounds to me like a superficial idea with a lot of unintended consequences that weren't taken into consideration before the petition drive was started.

I heard about this group on the radio on my drive home last night, and was pleased that the radio interviewer calmly and respectfully raised the points of the other beverages that use water. And what about can packed products? Those use water, too, and some of those companies are located in California. Should they be shut down, too?

When I was a kid in school, we were told that California is naturally a desert. If that's the case, it's our own fault that we overburdened it with construction and expansion. Now we're paying the consequence and are wringing our hands, and some are looking to lay blame. It's silly.

The rain will come again. All that's in question is 'when'.

Some are declaring this the 'worst drought in history!' Really? Based on what facts, what data?

Reliable and comprehensive weather records only go back about 160 years. We had Ben Franklin's 'Poor Richard's Almanack' for weather keeping before that, but that was predominately region-dependent observational data, not measured and recorded across a large swath of the Earth's surface.

Heck, the mercury-in-glass thermometer wasn't invented until the 18th century (1742) - meaning there was a period of 1850 years before that to the time of Christ, another 3,500 or so years before [i]that[/i] to the Egyptians which is where recorded history really starts.

That means that for roughly 5,300 years of recorded history, we didn't have technical aids to help us measure and quantify our environment or its condition. Let's see... 160 (years) / 5,300 (years) = 0.03.

So, for 3/100ths of recorded history we have fairly reliable data, and we're basing our plans on policies on that? Really?

We didn't have satellites capable of doing much beyond floating around until the 1960's - that's only 60 years ago. Let's see... 60 (years) / 5,300 (years) = 0.01.

That's 1/100th. Is that statistically significant? If that were a political poll or survey, would the analysts even take that into consideration?  No!  It's less than a fly speck.

But we still have groups pounding their chests, shouting from the rooftops and across the airwaves that 'we're killing ourselves! We're all gonna die!' Really?

If it truly is global warming - if the Earth is getting hotter - why did they change the name?

Why did they go from the name Global Warming to Climate Change? Global Warming is directional - the temperatures are going up. Climate change is squishy, at best. If it goes up, the climate is changing. If it goes down, the climate is changing.  It's squishy, so I don't buy it.

To me it seems that getting your knickers knotted over a flyspeck of data is silly.

Remember Al Gore's hockey stick:


Okay - looking at that, it's alarming.  However, if you check around and look at different sources, you see:


Now a lot of the groups doing the fear mongering have axes to grind and purses to fill.

NOAA wants to keep the money flowing in so they can study 'climate change'. Encouraging the fear of people in the 'we're all gonna die' scenario is a direct benefit to them.

Same with the universities that are 'studying' this 'phenomenon'. Keep the money flowing by doing the Chicken Little Dance.

Same with the United Nations. Member nations are throwing money at the UN for global warming... oops, sorry, climate change related studies.

If any one of these groups or organizations said, 'hey, maybe we're over-reacting' - what do you suppose would happen to their gravy train?  Would it dry up in about a nanosecond? Probably.

I am not saying it's not real. I'm just saying I don't buy it, 100%. In my opinion, we simply do not have enough hard data to determine whether or not it is real.

We can theorize all we want, but without the hard data - not manipulated to make it say what someone wants it to say to keep the money coming in - I am not jumping on the bandwagon or joining the panicked parade.

Do we, as a civilization, have a responsibility and obligation to be good stewards? Absolutely! That's why I don't drive more than I have to. That's why I hang my laundry outside or in my shower instead of using by clothes dryer. That's why I don't leave lights burning and water running (aside from the cost - that's waste and that's shameful).

Okay. I didn't know where this would end up but here we are. Now I'll put my soapbox away and get on with the rest of my day.

Hope yours is lovely!

Best~
Philippa

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