Today, it's New Hampshire being invaded and another round of who will and who won't and why.
Cruz won Iowa last night. According to some, that isn't surprising. According to others (the BBC, for one), it was a 'blow' to Trump. What the 'blowers' don't get is that Iowa is vastly different from the coastal states - New York and New England, the Eastern Seaboard and the Left Coast.
I think Cruz appealed to the locals with his attire (farm modern v. Armani), his demeanor - calm and sincere - and with his pastor father who spoke in a number of churches. With blue jeans, a 'cowboy' shirt and a pair of Tony Lama kicks, Cruz fit in more more easily than Trump. When Cruz visited farms, he probably wasn't mincing through the dirt, afraid of getting his city shoes muddy or dusty.
Even at the Iowa State Fair last summer, the difference is obvious. Ted fits right in, one of the regular guys. Donald appears as a celebrity, body guard, hordes of fans and all. As much as anything else, I think it's this optic that played out over the weeks and paid off for Cruz last night.
 |
| (c) Getty Images |
In all, I think Iowans, on a personal level, felt more comfortable with Cruz and that is why Cruz won.
To say that a 'blow' was dealt to Trump is a stretch. Even Trump was saying (although only he, Melania and his inner circle know what he was saying privately) that he didn't believe he would win. And, when he didn't, he gave in graciously. Surprisingly graciously (I was sitting on the sofa, palms together and praying he would be gracious, delighted when he was), and I think that won him at least some points across the board.
He didn't come out snarky and insulting. He congratulated Cruz and Rubio, wished the others well, and said he was heading to New Hampshire. Along with everyone else.
It was a good evening all around and I think, that in the sense that Trump had a surprise at the end in the tone and tenor of his capitulation speech, he probably actually did better than Cruz in a way. That pleasant speech might well make people sit up and pay a bit closer attention because 'maybe he isn't the jerk we thought, Mildred.' He revealed another facet to his character, and it's a good one. So, we'll see because there's a long way to go
On the Democrat side, that was a squeaker and I can't help but wonder what the real vote was. Unlike the Repbulicans, the Dems count delegates, not votes, and they don't release the 'real' numbers, the raw count, to the public. Which means box stuffing is entirely possible, do-able, and probable in some precincts.
It'll be interesting to see what comes out of there in a few weeks. Even though it won't really matter by then. At some point, Iowa will take the Democrat results, tally them and announce the 'real' winner. By then, though, it's too late. New Hampshire will be in the bag, South Carolina and Nevada will be underway, and no one will be paying attention to Iowa anymore (sorry, Iowa, but it's the fact).
In the meantime, both candidates are going to claim they won, even though they split the vote almost straight down the middle - separating the two of them at the end of the evening was just two-tenths of one percent which is about as tight as it gets.
Now, if Sanders goes to the Iowa Secretary of State and asks that the raw data be released, that'll be interesting. The Iowa Sec State is a Republican. If, looking at the data, there appears to be anything untoward, she might go up the food chain to ask about it. If it's glaring that the box was stuffed in Hilliary's favor (the DNC might not have believed how tight a race Berns would make it), they might just release that data. Give it three weeks or so. If they do, it'll make for interesting reading. If they don't, well... it'll go down in the books as a really close race.
What's going to get interesting now is this whole e-mail mess with Hilliary.
If Berns did better in Iowa than the DNC and Washington might have projected or expected, if he took the party by surprise, they might be getting nervous. Berns's numbers up in New Hampshire are strong. He's known to the folks there, and he's liked by the folks there. It's almost certain that he's going to win New Hampshire, and probably by a lot.
If he blows Hilliary out of the water up there, and if he can get his ground game going in South Carolina, where it's currently lagging, badly, and Nevada, and make it look like he's going to give Hilliary a run for her and the DNC's money, the Dems might decide to cut their losses. There is, after all, that little matter of the e-mails and the server, etc.
One thing that Bernie hasn't done to date is tackle Hilliary head-on over that. If he had challenged her on it leading up to last night, he very well could have had a clear win in Iowa. If he decides not to make that same mistake going forward, if he raises the question in people's minds that she can't be trusted with even middling decisions, he could start to walk away with this
Cue the legal paper chase through the halls of Justice, an indictment, a stepping down and a tossing in of Biden.
Even if Obie-One and the Democrat machine deny the indictment and negotiate the charges down to a misdemeanor, I think it's a sixty-forty proposition or better that Comey and the FBI will be furious with the manipulation. If they're mad enough, if they have a strong enough case to get a conviction and the Democrats wave their hands to make it go away, there might be some embarrassing leaks from Foggy Bottom as we get closer to the election.
No matter, the DNC is getting backed into a corner with Hilliary and the mess she's created, and Berns's surprising strength in this process. They can't wait too long because if they get much past Super Tuesday - March 1st, which is the day on which fifteen states either vote or caucus - they're going to have a real uphill battle to sell Biden as a replacement for Hilliary.
Keep watching - we're just getting started!
Best~
Philippa
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/PhilippaStories
No comments:
Post a Comment