Obie-One is in the last year of his presidency, a lamer duck than ever. Nothing he wants to institute as policy or anything else is going to go much of anywhere for the next eleven months. Particularly given the fact that the right controls both Houses of Congress.
All Representatives in the House and thirty-four seats in the Senate will be up for re-election come November, so there is the potential for a major power shift inside the Beltway. When you couple those things with the revolution taking place among the American electorate, this is turning into a perfect storm of an election year.
Mitch McConnell, the Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee that will be responsible for examining and confirming the next Justice, has already said, 'No'. Which is as it should be because whoever is appointed is going to have long-term impacts on the Court and on life here in the United States.
Obie-One will, as he has in the past, put ideology far ahead of Constitutional purism. He will look for a jurist who will be comfortable with, or even be champing at the bit to, legislate from the bench. The problem with that is that once the Supreme Court speaks, there is no court of last resort. The idea of passing a Constitutional Amendment to undo what the Court hands down is just about unheard of. Thirty-eight states have to pass the Amendment and that virtually never happens. Therefore, the Justices who sit on the Court could, if they put ideology ahead of Constitutionalism, be the nation's dictators, consigning the American people to whatever whim they choose to pass into law.
Given that, and with Scalia's passing, the next ten months take on even greater import. Who will be the next President? Who will be responsible for nominating and confirming the next Supreme Court Justice? Will the president be the outsider - Trump? (I leave Carson out because he just ain't going to go the distance - two states under their belts, numbers three and four looming, and he's already flagging.) Will it be the Tea Party candidate, Ted Cruz (who didn't even gain the support of the Tea Party's darling, Sarah Palin)? Or will it be a Washington insider - Clinton, Sanders, Rubio, Bush or Kasich?
On the right, the 'Establishment' candidates cannot gain traction. Look at Jeb! and Kasich. Their poll numbers suck wind and they're showing little signs of improving. After last night's debate, even with all the vituperation and shouting, Trump is still leading in South Carolina with 42% of the Republicans saying they'll be voting for him. Bush, the Establishment Right's darling, is at just six percent, along with Carson. Kasich has nine percent and Cruz and Rubio are in the teens. This, after Trump ignored all warnings and went right after the supposed sacred cow of the Bush family.
On the left, Hilliary's nomination to the head of the Democrat ticket is a certainty unless the FBI steps forward with a better than rock solid case against her. Still, the DOJ will decline to indict and that will set off a massive firestorm if the brainiacs who watch this stuff more closely than I are right.
Of course, as Real Clear Politics posits in the following article, her current deep and persistent brown-nosing of Obie-One is nothing more than a desperate ploy:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/13/hillary_clintons_frantic_embrace_of_obama.html
Reading this article stuck a deep chord - created an Ah Ha! moment. It was like a puzzle with a number of unset pieces - something smelled but I couldn't fit the pieces together. Now that I've seen this, it makes perfect sense.
Six months ago, even four months ago, Hilliary was desperate to distance herself from Obie-One. She was defining herself and her candidacy as being different from his. Then came the flare-up with the e-mails and the Foundation, and she's suddenly in Obie-One's hip pocket, breathing deeply. Since December she has begun running as Obie-One's 'third term' apparently hoping that this will offer some protection from Obie's DOJ.
No matter since it looks like the FBI has put the e-mail issue on the back burner and are now going after her through the questionable antics of the Clinton Foundation. Did she trade political favors for donations to the Foundation? Hmmm. Looks like it because the FBI has issued a subpoena to the Foundation. I just hope they find something they can make stick, despite the politics of it, and do it around the end of April when it's too late for anyone but Bernie to make a real run for it.
If it gets down to Trump or Cruz on the right and Berns on the left, it should be a good year for the right. Unless, of course, the American voter gets stupid again and elects a bunch of Democrats into Congress 'to balance the White House'. All that will do is ensure two more years of gridlock which everyone says they don't want.
Still, unless there is an indictment of Hilliary, Hilliary will be the left's only choice for president. Why? Because of the unconstitutional 'Super Delegates'. These are the party hacks, the Democrat sycophants with more money than brains who have sucked at the Kool-Aid teat for so long whatever brains they had have melted. They are puppets of the Democrat party and will do as the party dictates. In this case, the party dictates that they must be for Hilliary. Therefore, these people are already solidly in Hilliary's corner, bought and paid for, committed. That's another CF that's going to get more interesting when and if a recommendation for indictment is sent to the DOJ. Don't believe me? Well... Here's a headline from Salon:
Saturday, Feb 13, 2016 12:30 PM PST
Un-Democratic Party: DNC chair says superdelegates ensure elites don’t have to run “against grassroots activists”
Critics say the unelected superdelegate system is rigged. Debbie Wasserman Schultz basically admitted this is true
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/13/un_democratic_party_dnc_chair_says_superdelegates_ensure_elites_dont_have_to_run_against_grassroots_activists/Aside from all of that, what must be sending shivers up the spines of everyone currently serving in Congress is that the American people are sending a strong message that same-old, same-old doesn't play any more. If the majority of people are supporting Sanders and Trump, shunning Hilliary and the Establishment candidates on the right, what does that mean for the upcoming election?
Add into the mix the fact that the Senate - thirty-four of whom are up for re-election come November - will have to confirm, or not confirm, the next Supreme Court Justice. Obie-One has already said, despite McConnell's drawn line, that he is going to nominate someone. In that case, what's a Senator to do? It's like juggling nitroglycerin.
There is not enough time - just two weeks - for Obie-One to nominate a new candidate and get them in front of the Senate for confirmation hearings before the Super Tuesday caucuses and elections. Even if he tries to fast-track it, the Senate has the power and capability to drag its heels.
Iowa and New Hampshire might well have been the canaries in the coal mine for politics as usual inside the Washington Beltway. The American electorate has begun to speak in loud tones, as shown by giving a Tea Party candidate, a businessman / celebrity and a 74-year old Independent Senator from Vermont those two states in resounding fashion. Then there was last night's debate where the fireworks got really nasty between Trump and Bush and Cruz and Rubio.
March 1st, Super Tuesday, is going to be even more telling. If things go as they have gone in the past two states, and South Carolina, Nevada and the fifteen states on March 1st break the same way - for Trump/Cruz and Berns - that will present the Senate with a huge dilemma.
Yes, Hilliary "won" Iowa - but, literally, only by the flip of a coin. She got well and truly trounced in New Hampshire. If Trump and Berns come out of South Carolina and Nevada with a lead, and if they each do well on Super Tuesday, that will pretty much cast the political future in concrete. 'Establishment' will not fly in the coming Congressional election and those people who like their comfy seats and cushy jobs in the Senate are going to have to think long and hard about who they confirm to the Court.
It's not looking good for Hilliary in South Carolina - a must win state for her. Berns is making good inroads into her presumed security there. For weeks the press has been talking about South Carolina being a 'firewall' for her candidacy - but if you read some recent articles about what's going on there, it doesn't look quite so certain. He's closing the gap in published polls, and he's gotten some key endorsements (although the talking heads are declaring endorsements don't matter any more). He's got a strong ground game and it looks like he might just give her a run for her money.
All I can say, again, is that this seems to be a perfect storm in the political realm. A pending nomination to the Supreme Court, an extraordinary field of presidential candidates from which the American people will pick and choose over the coming months, and a Congressional election that will determine the course of this country for the next two years, at least. Watch closely - it's gonna be a rocky ride!
Best~
Philippa
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