So Much Going On

Watching the news it's a busy time with the election and all the stuff in the EU - the New Year's Day attacks against women in Cologne, Germany and the resulting uproar over that. Then there's the Shanghai Index and China's intervention in its markets and everything else.

Me? I'm hangin'. Just chillin' in my little corner of the world. Paying attention to the headlines and assimilating what they mean or might mean but not really, if I'm honest, affected. Selfish? Perhaps, but what can I do about any of it, really?

With what happened in Germany on New Year's Day when reports have it that hundreds if not as many as a thousand men formed groups that surrounded and attacked young women, some of those women claiming they were raped, I am very glad some here in the US are calling for a slow-down in immigration from the Middle East. I never used to think that being soft-hearted directly correlates to being soft-headed but given what unfolded in Germany, perhaps it does. Of course the government can only do so much, then it devolves on the individual to behave respectfully toward their host and that host's 'family'.

Unfortunately for those young women, they're women, a lower form of life according to the Koran and Islamic teaching. If boys are taught from the time they're knee-high to a cricket that they, being male, are the superior being, that women have less value than a goat, and that any woman not 'properly dressed' head to toe in a burqa and hijab is a whore, what can you expect? As for those men, if they are from the Middle East and North Africa - bastions of Islam society - how can you expect better? They have never learned better because they were never taught better. That's why the same kind of group grope has taken place again and again against female journalists.

Unfortunately, it's often not 'just' a grope, which is demeaning enough in itself, thank you. In many cases it's a rape or a gang rape. Remember Lara Logan, the 60 Minutes journalist who was gang raped while covering the protests in Tahrir Square? That happened in 2011 and the after-effects of that assault have landed her in the hospital as recently as last year.

There have been others, she's not alone, because as a woman she is fair game to these * ahem * men. Although I have a hard time calling someone a 'man' simply because he has a penis and knows how to use it. A man does not take by force what he can gain by guile and as part of a mob of other vermin who are beating a woman into submission a scum with a penis does not qualify or rise to the level of a 'man'. He is less than vermin. At least the vermin are clear in what they want whereas the goal of the scum is cloudy, at best.

I hardly think the EU or the US will hold classes for all these migrants, requiring them to learn about Western culture, gender equality, and all the niceties of How to Behave in Polite Society. Like don't presume to think that a Western woman who wears her hair down, loose and uncovered is a whore, or has less value than a goat. After all, I think it's assumed that when one visits another person's home, one will behave and mind their manners.

Most of the immigrants do seem to get it, but some don't and it's the some who taint the most, which is regrettable. Perhaps those who do should take control of those who don't, take them aside and teach them proper behavior. That would solve a lot of problems.

Closer to home, Obie-One is punishing the innocent because of the guilty. Impugning the honesty, integrity and ethics of the law abiding while doing absolutely nothing about the criminal element. Does anyone with a brain for an instant think that the punks and hoods and vermin who commit gun crimes are going to pay attention to these new rules Obie-One has laid down?

Oh, yeah, I can see it now. All the gang-bangers of the Bloods, the Crips and MS-13 get wind of these new rules, they look at each other in surprise. "What were we thinking?" They'll all lay down their guns, throw open the doors to the arsenal so the police can come in and collect the hoard of weapons, and start attending Sunday school. Right.

Well, life goes on, the world continues to spin, and nothing else will change. The gang-bangers will still gang-bang, gun crimes will still happen and the new rules will have zero effect on anyone but the law abiding. Fortunately, I don't have any intent to do anything significant with my guns. I'll take them out and clean them this weekend, and then put them away again.

The jobs report came out and they're still spewing happy crap. Yes, the economy is chugging along and, perhaps, the number of gainfully employed is growing, but I have a hard time believing it.

What's reported in the news is the BLS's (Bureau of Labor Statistics) U-3 rate. That's the report of the new jobs created, jobs filled, and active workers and is around 5%. However! The rate they don't report is the more telling of the two. The U-6 is the data for the under-employed, the discouraged, and those people only marginally tied to the workforce.

If you're into 'bureaucratese', here's the blurb that describes the differences between the U-1 to U-3 and U-4 to U-6 datasets:

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States, Fourth Quarter of 2014 through Third Quarter of 2015 Averages

Six alternative measures of labor underutilization have long been available on a monthly basis from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the United States as a whole. They are published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation news release. (See table 15.) The official concept of unemployment (as measured in the CPS by U-3 in the U-1 to U-6 range of alternatives) includes all jobless persons who are available to take a job and have actively sought work in the past four weeks. This concept has been thoroughly reviewed and validated since the inception of the CPS in 1940. The other measures are provided to data users and analysts who want more narrowly (U-1 and U-2) or broadly (U-4 through U-6) defined measures...

The six state measures are based on the same definitions as those published for the United States:

• U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
• U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
• U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
• U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
• U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

If you care, or are at all interested, here's the link to Table 15, referenced above:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

As you can see, the official unemployment rate is 5% while the total unemployment rate is 9.9%. So what's real?

Looking at the further definitions below the linked chart, the honest-if-the-government-would-be-honest unemployment rate is about 6.1% - which is not that bad. Of course, that's assuming these data crunchers haven't massaged or fondled or played with the numbers. Which they may have done to give us a happy crap picture. After all, isn't that what good statisticians do, play with numbers to draw the picture they want to draw?

At the end of the day, though, since I'm on the bright side of the fence between employed and unemployed, I'll go with the better number. I'm working and, so far as I can see, will be for a while, and that's good for me. I'll take it.

And, speaking of that, it's past time for me to be getting ready to go to my job. I'll leave it here and wish you a happy day, free of anything remotely unpleasant. Keep your fingers and toes crossed for me - I have bought my first ever Powerball tickets today and hope to retire to Bedlam on Sunday morning after I check them against the draw.

Best~
Philippa

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/PhilippaStories

Now This Is Interesting

I don't begin to pretend that I'm smart or a brain trust or anything. I am just a single individual who grazes across the plain of news, turning this and that into something and then exploring it. Then I spew it onto the virtual page and express myself.

Most of these entries are simple and quiet, like the letters I used to write to my Mom. News of the day, little goings on and so forth.

Some are more 'explosive' in that they are based on something that lit a fire under me. Like yesterday's post, and some of the posts I've written about economics and politics.

Yesterday I commented on Putin having a pair, probably something like these, if you were to ask him:

I think The Donald's would match given how much chutzpah the two of them persistently exhibit.

Both say and do stupid things and keep on going without looking back. Neither will apologize or back down, which is why I think the two of them would probably not like one another but would, when push comes to shove, respect one another as worthy opponents.

On the other hand, Obie-One doesn't have a pair of those. Well, okay. He would probably say he does but I don't believe it given his reaction to anything that requires a response with resolve.

Like that red line he drew in Syria. The one where he said that if Assad used his chemical weapons on the Kurds we would do "something". In exchange, Assad did and we didn't. A blatant sign of weakness.

Or like his "negotiations" with Iran in which he gave away every last thing but the recipe and equipment for making a nuke. Another sign of blatant weakness (the result of leading from behind).

Or any of the other in-your-face events of the past eight years on which he has either turned his back or laid down. However, giving him the benefit of the doubt, if he does have any, they probably look something like:

See? Non-existent because he hasn't any that can be found without a scanning electronic microscope.

That's why Iran is firing missiles and promoting terrorists and we're doing nothing. It's why we did nothing whatsoever after Benghazi or Fort Hood or any of the other attacks perpetrated upon American citizens by foreign actors. Law enforcement stepped in and took care of the Boston Marathon bombers and took out the San Bernardino shooters, but Obie One stood there, sucking his thumb and fondling the void between his legs while the cops did their job. Which is why I say he has none.

With all of what I've written in the past couple of weeks, about Donald and Putin and Obie-One and so on, I went and looked at my blog stats yesterday because there has been a spike in page views. That was interesting, so I looked to see where they're coming from.

Huh. As of yesterday afternoon Russia showed up with ninety-one views in the past week, and China showed up with twenty-two views. Germany, thirty-two and a scattering of views from other places.

Is this because I'm such a fascinating individual, so well read, well informed and erudite that nations are waiting breathless for my next expulsion? I hardly think so. But it is interesting to know that I am hitting something someplace. Whether it's a Vlad Filter or something else, this is being at least looked at.

Come on, Vlad! Step in and take over the Middle East. We won't stop you. We haven't the spine to try. Think of all that oil just waiting for you there. You think the Crimea has gas and oil? That's nothing! That's child's play compared to Saudi Arabia and Iraq and Iran and Kuwait and the rest of it.

Europe will scream bloody murder, but they're in no position to do anything about it. They're all tied up in their own cluster-fuck designed by their own inept approach to immigration and assimilation.

All those Muslims in Europe? Most are no doubt law-abiding and wanting to be there but we all know that some, probably a goodly proportion, are Jihadists waiting for a light. Remember Paris back in November? Those Muslim migrants are still invoking Shari'a law and perpetrating 'honor killings' and mutilating their women, and the Europeans are doing squat about it. So they won't look up from what they're doing to do more than protest if you send a real, honest-to-God force into Syria.

Besides, if you and your army does wipe out the Middle East, we'll at least be dealing with the devil we know v. the devil we don't. We'll be dealing with someone with whom we can (probably) negotiate rationally because it won't involve religious fanaticism.

You might not like us, and I frankly don't blame you given the weak sissies we have running this whorehouse, but I'd rather see you deal with those nut jobs head-on rather than continue watching the 'Aw, shucks, guys. Knock it off, wouldja?' approach of this administration and its minions.

Hell, enough strong words and a few shakes of your fist and most of the UN will cave because they're as weak as water, too.

So how about it? You up to that challenge? And, while you're at it, you can wipe the floor with ISIS or ISIL or whatever IS** those vermin are going by this week. Clean 'em up, clear 'em out, wipe 'em from the face of the Earth because we'd appreciate that. We're not up to it. We're sitting here doing the ol' Jackie Gleason 'huminah, huminah, huminah' and fumbling. You know, Obie-One and Hilliary and Herman might be so grateful they'll give you the keys to this kingdom.

You game? I'll be watching.

Philippa

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/PhilippaStories

And The Sun Came Up After All

See? This is the beauty of time passing. After getting yesterday's vitriol out of my system things are looking brighter today.

This morning, almost the first thing, I "sucked it up" (metaphorically speaking) and got on the scale. Things there aren't as bad as I feared. The little fat bombs I lost in the past couple of years haven't found me after all. I just feel like it - the physical / mental combination. So I'm going to slant it in the direction I want and figure this is body telling brain, "Hey! Let's do it again! There's additional acreage here that could be shed." Since I'm up for that, knowing there is more to do, I'm going to take advantage and see what personal re-shaping I can accomplish with some changes.

I still don't know if the other things going on relate to my thyroid, but I'm going to assume that it does. I'll be eating more fruits and veggies - I brought broccoli and cauliflower to go along with lunch (a chicken thigh and pasta). I'm even considering getting a bag of frozen berries, a package of frozen peaches, cooking them into a syrup and using that to add to plain yogurt. I should eat more yogurt. I know I should because it's so good for me, but I don't.

The meeting I whined about yesterday took place and I have direction and clarity. Two more questions to be answered and things will be on track.

CONFESSION!! I finally have something relating to the whole global warming / climate change BS that I can wrap my brain around and the opinion is shifting. Microscopically, let's be clear, but it is shifting.

I still do not buy into the idea that it's "man-caused" - we aren't that significant or important. We are, for all intents and purposes, gnats on an elephant's butt. 75% of the planet is still water. About 70% of the last masses are unpopulated. So we are, no matter how we think of ourselves, unimportant in the overall scheme of things.

And this means that the 2030 Agenda put out by the Pinky & The Brain Society for World Domination is even less important than I thought it was when I first heard of it.

Seems that the changes in the world's climate might be the result of the Earth's rotation slowing. Which makes sense.

Of course, what doesn't make sense is the Brain Dead League that says everything from toenail fungus, to hemorrhoids, to bad breath to... you name it, is causing climate change which is causing jihadists to run around killing people. It's all linked because the media and the Brain Dead League Who Must Explain Everything Using Climate Change Even When The Linkages Make No Sense to Anyone With Half-A-Working Brain say it is.

Science has known for a long time that the moon is drifting away from us. It's inevitable that as our cosmic dance partner drifts off it's going to have an effect on us. Now is this permanent? No one knows. We've certainly had warmer epochs and ages in the past. We've also had colder. Perhaps the moon is drifting temporarily and then will swing back and draw in again. I don't know, and I won't know because I won't be around for it if it happens.

In the meantime, while the moon does slide slowly off, we are going to see climate changes because our little blue gem is inextricably linked to the moon.

If it wasn't for the moon, our oceans wouldn't have tides. They would be stagnant and dead given the volume of water in them. There is no way humans could generate tides in the Pacific or Atlantic basins. Without the tides, our little planet wouldn't have weather. We wouldn't have El Ninos or La Ninas. We wouldn't have rain or snow or wind or anything else. We would have all the interest of Venus (the planet, not the Greek goddess).

So, perhaps the slowing of the Earth's rotation is linked to the moon's drift and that's why we're seeing what we're seeing. Greenland re-greening and the rest of it.

Of course, the cries of despair over the poles are still pretty much bogus. It's a case of "let's look over <== so we don't see that the ice pack over ==> there is causing problems with reprovisioning our scientific stations" as happened last winter.

In fact, NASA has a new study and the knicker-knotting among the alarmists just increased exponentially because it shows:  “Antarctica is actually gaining ice." (End of the second paragraph in the linked article.)

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151103-antarctic-ice-growing-shrinking-glaciers-climate-change/

So the Climate Whiners are still demanding that we ignore the fact that if there's more ice, which is heavier than water, water is displaced which could account for a rise in sea levels.

As I say, the dial has twitched for me. With the reports of Earth's rotation slowing, I can definitely see that climate will be affected. But I do not, for one nanosecond believe that it's man-caused. That's the simplistic guilt-ridden answer for the angst riddled brain-dead who can't think for themselves.

Besides, if the People In Charge of this planet - our government representatives - were really serious about global warming / climate change instead of just being interested in photo ops and lip service, they would be beating the crap out of China to get its house in order. They are, after all, far and away the worst of the worst when it comes to polluting our little blue gem. Instead, China came out of the Paris climate conversation unswayed, unscathed and undeterred. They're going to go ahead and do what they're doing - like issuing their second Red Flag warning for air quality in Beijing - and ignore the rest of us. Even though the rest of us are impacted by what they do.

The fact that China owns the world by owning much of its debt makes a difference, too. After all, if Guido has you by the financial cojones, you're not going to do much but twitch and plead. You'll pretty much do whatever it is that Guido tells you to do. Or else.

So, as you can see, things are looking up for me. I'm back on track and in stride, so I'll go ahead and do what I'm going to do, and I hope you will, too.

Have a lovely day! It's raining here so we are having a lovely day.

Best~
Philippa

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/PhilippaStories

Drama Queen and the Dragon in the Room

No doubt most people who have read this blog in the past few days think I’m a blithering idiot and I’ll admit, maybe I am. Then again, maybe I’m not.

I am not a market investor. I do not trust brokerage houses, or Wall Street, or anything to do with stocks, bonds, commodities or equities of any kind. If I cannot hold ‘it’, whatever ‘it’ is, in my hot little hand, I want no part of it.

My husband, back in 1989, quit his job to become a day trader. He began playing the market – longs and shorts, puts and calls – and we made some money. In the process, he became fascinated by the operation of the various markets: stocks, bonds, commodities. His enthusiasm spilled over onto me, willing or not. It has, for the past twenty-five years, been the primary topic of conversation in our house.

We talk at length about market manipulation and algorithms and all sorts of other shady things. Watching the markets as we do we were not surprised to hear about ‘front running’ markets. That is a trick where fund managers intercept electronic transactions and trade ahead of them via algorithm. That way they are guaranteed to have the price of their ‘whatever’ go up. Their order hits, they buy and golly gee whiz be damned, a second later another order shows up and boosts the price. Then the first guys have a choice: buy, hold or sell?

They can buy more or hold what they have if they think another order is going to come through. Otherwise they can sell and take the profit off their trade, then do it again the next time and again and again and make a whole load of money.

‘Flash Boys’ is a book on the subject that was released a while back. When it was talked about all over the financial news stations, no eyebrows in our house were raised. It was a shrug and a ‘yeah, so?’ Since then a number of other books on the subject have been released.

Naturally, a bunch of people “inside” rushed forward and tossed the BS flag. But if the guy who wrote the book, Michael Lewis, was on the inside, saw it happening and didn’t like it because he actually has a moral compass so outted what’s well known within the industry, isn’t it just possible that the naysayers are just covering their hinies?

Whatever.

The point is that I am not a complete nincompoop when it comes to markets and trading and understanding the lingo. I’m not an expert, either. I’m a person who knows more than the average person because I’ve been talking the talk for a quarter of a century. I pay attention and I graze, looking through a variety of sources and putting the pieces of the puzzle together until it makes sense and fits the overall scheme under discussion by all parties.

So, back to the economies and the news.

Up until today, what Greece is going through, the speculation, referendum and talk about a ‘Grexit’ has been overshadowing, to some extent, what’s been happening in China. With all eyes focused on the drama queen in the Med nothing was left to spare to the dragon in the room. Now, though, that focus is changing – rapidly.

Starting last night, during the early morning in China and Bloomberg’s looking up from Greece for a moment, there was an ‘oh shit’ moment. They started talking, actively and with some energy, about China and the Chinese markets.

In China over the past few years, stocks have flown high on speculative trading. Now, as usually happens, the parabolic curve has tipped over and the market is in free-fall. The government has stepped in, throwing money at the conflagration to no effect.

Since June 12 – in less than four weeks – the Shanghai Composite has lost 32% of its value. Almost $33 or €33 or whatever currency marker you want to use out of every one-hundred is gone. Vaporized because it was paper and there was nothing supporting its value.

More than one-half of all of the companies listed on the exchange have decided to pull their stocks – they will no longer offer shares for sale. That is as of this week.

The People’s Bank of China is stepping up, offering money – but it is government money. The government will print, the people will be taxed, and nothing will fundamentally change. According to Bespoke Investment Group, China’s stock markets have lost a whopping $3,250,000,000,000 ($3.25 trillion).

In China, regulators are now allowing people to put up their homes – the houses in which they live – as collateral against margin trades! I kid you not, the report about that is here, in this article (fourth bullet point near the bottom of the first page):

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-stock-market-crash-is-just-beginning-2015-07-08

I graze broadly when I’m interested in something. Forbes, CNN, CNBC, The Economist, Financial Times, New York Times, whatever. In my graze last night, reading and skimming, I saw several interesting, and alarming, points.

First, several articles and Op Ed pieces commented on the similarities between what’s happening in the world economies now and what happened in the run-up to the 1929 crash on Wall Street. Just because Wall Street has moved to the Far East doesn’t change the effects a major market crash would have on everyone and everything else.

Hong Kong, India and a number of other markets, including currencies, are already feeling the pinch, and it’s only going to get worse. As one starts to rattle, it’s going to shake the next, all the way around the world, through all of the markets. It’s just as is happening in Europe on a much smaller scale since Greece’s referendum. Only China is the elephant and Greece is the gnat.

This is the biggest problem with having things so inter-related. It’s like being a conjoined twin. If the system of one fails, the system of the second will follow suit and there’s no getting around or saving it. Same thing here. We are too tightly conjoined to be able to stand alone, on our own.

What happens in China is not going to stay in China. At 11:11 this morning local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off slightly more than 180 points. This afternoon, ten minutes before the NYSE closes for the day, it’s down 231 points. It was down yesterday and I’m pretty sure it’s going to be down again tomorrow. Looking at the one month chart, it’s off about 700 points, so it’s much less than 1% of the overall market value. However, is this the start of a major bear market?

If we are a conjoined twin with China and the EU, how far down will we go?

How is the China effect going to impact business and production here, in the US? If we cannot buy cheap goods from China, our prices will go up, what effect will that have on the cost of living?

Lots of questions – far more than I have room to ask here.

Another issue is the commodities markets and, no, I’m not talking about pork bellies. It’s the metals that are interesting.

China has vast gold holdings – bullion, the hard stuff, not the paper ETFs that aren’t worth the ink with which they’re printed.

(Aside: take a tree, a single tree and make it into sawdust – that is what the gold ETFs do to gold bullion. The tree had value, until it was ground into sawdust. Then it has no value, just like the gold ETF you probably hold in your retirement account. It’s a paper IOU, a promise that cannot be redeemed even if you wanted to. Try – take your shares of paper gold and try to redeem one ounce worth. You will be laughed at and told ‘sorry, you can’t do that’ or ‘sorry, it’ll be six months before we can deliver it to you’.)

So, will China dump gold into the world market in order to cover their economic implosion? If they do, that will be a temporary punch in the gut to the price of gold. All gold prices – bars, rounds, ETFs, stocks of gold producers – everything will drop like a rock. But when the paper money reaches its intrinsic value (zero), gold will revert to its historic relevance and become ‘money’ again. Then the value of it will soar because physical gold is in limited supply. Paper gold – those ETF shares so many hold – will have value only as toilet paper.

Time will tell and guessing is simple exercise to no real purpose. So, I’ll sit here on the sidelines and watch the action unfold.

Good luck to you in this mess!

Best~

Philippa

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/philippastories